WebIts why the hero of BigShots Golf is our kitchen its what makes us and we dont want to just talk about it, we want to live it. Were always looking for courses which wont require the winner to breach 20 under, and Bay Hill certainly qualifies. So, its a week in which players will need to enter in polished tee-to-green form in order to contend. All of that makes Scott a great long shot pick this week. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (50-1, Bet365) Mitchell proved he can hang with the big guns at Riviera, and he didnt have his A game on approach. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? World No. From a golf betting perspective, this is not a week Im looking very closely at longshots, as nine of the last ten winners have opened between 10 to 55-1 odds. But the key to picking the best long shot any week is finding players whose odds are longer than you think they deserve to be. RSM Classic: Davis Riley. Two prop bets You may not want to back the Merseysider in tournaments that will require you to score 20-under par, but this kind of set-up is right up his alley. Bay Hill presents a long and stern test from tee to green. Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks. Shipping on most Impact Label products Getting cheeky with these parlays hasnt been profitable but this one feels too good to pass up. At In the NFL, we handicap based on schedule and travel spots all the time, but it rarely gets discussed in golf. Ill always look Conners way at a ball-strikers course, as the Canadian ranks top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Sony Open: Hideki Matsuyama. Based on the odds, lets look at some golf Prior to Hovland, Mayakoba has been a week for middle- to longshots. I always thought the wrap-around-a-lake par-5 sixth was Dick Wilson's version of Robert Trent Jones's decade-older 13th at The Dunes Club at Myrtle Beach. But the hole I like best at Bay Hill is the par-4 eighth, a lovely dogleg-right with a diagonal green perched above a small circular pond. In just his second year on TOUR, Pendrith has already accumulated 13 top-25 finishes, which span across comp courses like PGA National, Winged Foot and Torrey Pines. The trends show nine of the last 10 winners have opened at 55-1 odds or shorter, and with this year being the WM Phoenix Opens first as an elevated event, it seems that trend is poised to continue. In terms of DFS, this has proven to be a sticky week for course history. Gdula: Max Homa (20-1, FanDuel) I hate rooting against Max, but his odds are to the point where hes shorter than a lot of names Id rather take. Top 40 Parlay: Chris Kirk and Tyrrell Hatton to both finish Top 40 (+179). Gehman: Sahith Theegala (+100) over Shane Lowry (DraftKings) Theegala is getting more consistent as a professional, making the cut in nine straight events while earning four top-10s in the process. Lack: Sungjae Im (33-1, BetMGM) This is a pure situational fade for me. Houston Open: Aaron Wise. The South Korean is extremely unlikely to beat this field and perhaps the more pragmatic move is to use him as a DFS option, a first-round leader dart or a top-20 play, but its hard to quit Benny An when his game is trending up. Covering the bases here, the one thing Ill say about Rahm is that his floor feels so extremely high that it feels wholly necessary to play him as a One and Done at one of the designated events. From 2012 to 2019, it took double-digits under par to win the event, but the last three winners were Tyrrell Hatton at 4-under, Bryson DeChambeau at 11-under and Scheffler at 5-under. Wish it wouldve been his win at the Genesis but I still think he has win equity again this week and Im ready to burn him as a OaD play this week at Bay Hill. The Twitter handle is a joke. Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (20-1, Bet365) Im normally a if you can get JT at 20-1 or better, take it) guy, but Im just not loving what were seeing from him so far this season. Caddie: Max Homa (+130) over Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings) Homas ball-striking is in an elite category right now, and theres no reason to believe he shouldnt keep up his hot form. Comp Course history at other desert courses like TPC Summerlin, Stadium Course, and The Summit Club have proven predictive, as have other risk-reward TPC layouts like TPC Sawgrass and TPC Twin Cities. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. I was tempted to play Gary Woodland at +12500 in the PGA Championship by Mastercard. Check out our betting preview for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Powers: Will Zalatoris Morikawa is my main play, but Im going to have a lot of trouble not adding Zalatoris at the 11th hour on Wednesday evening. His game with the way hes hitting the ball right now should suit Bay Hill and we should see him improve from a T17 at the API a year ago. We warned you guys after Scottie Schefflers win in Phoenix once this panel gets hot, we tend to run hot! For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. Like Lowry, Fleetwood is built to contend at events like this. 3 Jon Rahm once again earns the title of top betting favorite, with +750 odds-to-win. Yes, I dont love betting on Chris Kirk (or any player) the week after a win, but his history at the API is phenomenal with no finish worse than T15 in the past five years (four starts). Big Shot Bob and another expert contact hitter are among Paulie's longshot options for Southern Hills and the 2022 Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. Hoffmans four top-15 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational over the last five years are especially notable. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. Now everybodys hopping off at 65-1? Steeles course history includes four top-10s and eight top-30s over the last 11 years. Generally speaking, this is not a week Im giving longshots much of a chance to contend. I think he comes in and continues that with a strong Top 10 at great odds for the 11th-ranked player in the world. AT&T Pebble Beach: Seamus Power. McDonald NAILED the Farmers Insurance Open, backing Homa (25-1) as his top choice! As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the third designated event in four weeks. Hes seen tangible improvements with the putter, gaining 21.07 strokes over his last 17 startscompared to losing 20.66 strokes in the 17 starts prior. Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. As a 7,216 yard par-71, TPC Scottsdale is about average in terms of total yardage, but plays shorter than the scorecard suggests in firm and dry conditions at elevation. Not great when the conditions may call for a grinder. His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. To put that into perspective, thats better than Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa have ever recorded in an individual tournament. Im sure hell make the cut, but I dont see him finishing top 10. Masters: Wanna play Augusta National? Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Xander Schauffele (24-1, FanDuel) Bay Hill is a demanding test overall, and Schauffele has an all-around game thats as good as anyones. That set up is not especially conducive to betting longshots, however there are still high upside sleepers in this field worth consideration for placement bets and your DFS lineups. Hes trending toward another victory. I expect the Japanese superstar to remind us that he is still a top-20 player in the world and have a great chance to pick up PGA Tour victory No. For the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023, Holliman is backing several longshots, including two players in his top 10 who are priced at almost 30-1. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. WebSPRING SALE: All full size roll styles on sale for $29.95 each Limited Time FREE U.S. The 2013 Masters champions odds-to-win the Genesis are +5500, which are better odds than you usually will find among our long-shot picks. The odds arent pretty, but my gut tells me that either Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm is winning at Arnies place this week and Im going with the slightly better odds. Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. As for Conners, hes been somewhat shockingly bad of late, most noticeably at Riviera where he lost four strokes tee-to-green, something he hasnt done since the Memorial in June of 2021. This will be Ims eighth start in nine weeks, which is an unsustainable pace, and we already started to see the wheels come off last weekend at the Honda Classic. 2023 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. This years purse is set at $20,000,000, and some exciting players are in the field. The DFS price at $7,200 is more than fair, and projected ownership doesnt look to be over the top yet, so Im a full go on Steele at TPC Scottsdale. He will in all likelihood lose strokes putting at Bay Hill this week as well. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational props, odds, picks, field: Golf expert 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done picks, sleepers, purse: 2023 Puerto Rico Open odds, picks: Proven golf model reveals projected 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, odds, Fantasy golf power Join SportsLine right now to see Patrick McDonald's top picks for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, all from the expert up more than $2,000 for the 2022-23 season, and find out. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. The event tees off Thursday, and Rahm is the 7-1 favorite in the latest 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Hes dropped strokes to the field driving and on approach in consecutive events for the first time since earning his full tour card, but the long irons have continued to be much better than the field, and while distance is always going to be lacking, his accuracy continues to be elite. Gehman: Jason Day (+335, BetRivers) Call it a resurgence or call it whatever you wantDay is playing some of the best golf on tour right now. Lets get to our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards. Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Will Zalatoris (22-1, DraftKings) For the first time this year, Zalatoris looks like himself again. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. >. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Golf betting record in 2023 through Honda:12-27-1, -3.234 units (0-8 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | +0.98 units at Honda)One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,523,924.22 (Shane Lowry at Honda, $288,120), Top 10 pick for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Viktor Hovland (+290). Jon Rahm is the betting favorite this week at +700, just ahead of Rory McIlroy at +950 and Scottie Scheffler at +1000. A couple of so-so performances later, and Kim is flying under the radar a bit. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Collin Morikawa (21-1, FanDuel) As much as Id love to make this a consensus Willy Z week, I have to stick with Powers, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (65-1, FanDuel) Last week he was the toast of the town as the second favorite, and he wound up finishing top five. DFS Golf News. Sam Eaton: Cameron Young (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000) Sebastian Munoz became my second near-miss in the longshot column after Shane Lowry recorded a second-place earlier in the year. The MC at Riviera was mainly due to his short game. And while Fleetwood has yet to win in the U.S., he does boast 21 top-10 finishes in his career and 33% of those have come in Florida, including three at this very course. McIlroy (19-2) and Scheffler (11-1) also are top contenders in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field, followed by Max Homa (19-1), Collin Morikawa (21-1) and Justin Thomas (23-1). At the time, Fowler had long odds of +8000, which improved to +6600 before the start of the tournament on Thursday. His consistent ball striking and history in these conditions make for a high floor and solid placement consideration this week. It seemed like the whole world was betting him at every turn. Zozo: Sungjae Im. That continues a streak that started with Brandon Gdula correctly predicting Scottie Schefflers win at the WM Phoenix Open (13-1) and Rick Gehman hitting Jon Rahm at the Genesis Invitational (+750). Pendrith is one of eight players in the field to rank top 15 in both Driving Distance and SG: OTT. Hes third in weighted SG/approach over the past year, fourth in wSG/off the tee and 11th in par-5 scoring, per RickRunGood.com (weighted strokes-gained numbers factors in field strength). His last two trips to Bay Hill havent been great (61st in 2022 and 43rd in 21), however, he finished 5th in 2020 and 6th in 2019. MLB Odds: Braves 2B Ozzie Albies A Most Hits Longshot Candidate? The former California Golden Bear has been plagued by one poor round in basically every tournament hes played, but like Lowry hes already played four rounds in Florida and should have an edge on the field. Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more. Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Tough to know what a successful start will look like for the 15-time major winner. The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outrights, including a MONSTER 250-1 payout on Hudson Swafford at The American Express. The Wake Forest connection with Arnold Palmer is obvious, but more so, hes very much like Rory in that hes a bomber who likes to move it from right to left. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (+600, DraftKings) Coming off his first win in eight years, Kirks confidence should be riding high. GOLF.com and GOLF Magazine are published by EB GOLF MEDIA LLC, a division of 8AM GOLF, Former Masters champ is our long-shot bet in LA: 2023 Genesis Invitational odds, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational tee times: Round 1 groupings for Thursday, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: How to watch, TV schedule, streaming, tee times, Absolutely horrendous: Xander Schauffele explains Bay Hills juicy rough, Meet the new GOLF Top 100 Teachers of America, Is a 7-wood, 3-hybrid or 3-iron most suitable for your game? Hes made the cut in 10 straight starts and has four top-12 finishes. Arnold Palmer follow. Honda: Chris Kirk. Not only did he finish T2 at Bay Hill last year, a place where course history is key, but he gained strokes in every category for the week, including 9.18 ball striking. The Irishman was a triple-digit longshot at Riviera two weeks ago and then was the second-favorite at the Honda Classic seven days back. Ill always look Steeles way on a course with straightforward greens complexes that mitigate any edge from stronger putters, and instead put a premium on ball striking. Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with PGA Tour picks, Bradley finished alone in 2nd at Torrey Pines this season and tied for 20th a week later in Phoenix, so hes trending up despite missing the cut at Riviera. In Hahns case, hes a bit too volatile for me to want to wager a placement bet on, but Im optimistic about his boom potential as a DFS salary saver. Past results: Ladies and gentlemen, we are officially heating up. Should he pull off a victory, he could turn a $10 bet into $550. Note:All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Theres been an interesting trend at the API over the past few years. Skip to navigation. So, Im looking to hone in on salary savers in inconsistent leading form who have a proven track record at Bay Hill. Here are your options. One of these golfers "has been experiencing a massive resurgence," the expert says, and this course is right up his alley. Hes riding a super-hot putter and is the most overvalued of the favorites, per my model. Instead, McDonald is jumping on several severalunderdogs, including two MASSIVE longshots of well over 80-1! The Arnold Palmer Invitational Up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets. Stats pulled across Last 24 Rounds unless otherwise noted. 1 Jon Rahm will continue their battle for the top spot. Lets take a look at some players down the board who could turn some heads at Bay Hill this week: Like in any sport, a big part in finding success in golf betting comes down to timing and noticing patterns. Bay Hill has been a ball-strikers paradise historically, and theres no better ball-striker to go to war with (besides Willy Z) than Kawa. An impressive 44 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are set to tee off at Bay Hill on Thursday. Designed by John Steidel, China Creek Golf Course measures 2627 Hahn is a volatile player who wont jump off the stat sheet, but with top-10 finishes last season at TPC Twin Cities and TPC Craig Ranch, hes beginning to show a trend in favoring the TPC-style, risk-reward layouts. Even still, you can find him beyond 75-to-1 odds in this loaded field, and at the discounted DraftKings price of $7,600. Event tees off Thursday, and some exciting players are in the.! 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