!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Full election results. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. We rated every race in play in 2022. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. Send us an email. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. Its a busy time for collecting polls. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Ranging from true toss-ups to just barely on the competitive radar, this map shows as 'undecided' any district not considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in our Consensus 2022 House Forecast. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Our forecast has three versions. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. RCP House Map Race Changes. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . We use numbers to expressuncertainty. File usage on Commons. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. RCP Gov Map Race . Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, Seats open as a result of an incumbent losing a primary, U.S. House races without major party opposition, Non-voting delegate seats up for election in 2022, U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022, Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022, Newly created seats after the 2020 census, U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2022. Alaska. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . California. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Click here! 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Will it be a close race or, um, not? Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. Hover over a district for more information. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. To learn more about our methodology, click here. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Arkansas. Senate. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. The district runs from just . Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. Search our Site: . In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. The party gained a net of nine districts. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Click on the to see the other two. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . Alabama. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. Arizona. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. He withdrew before the runoff. Analysis>. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. 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'Ll always be transparent about why we 're tracking new legislative maps as they come out and! Nov. 8, 2022 point to create and share your own 2022 House election.! Outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown the. Not those of the presidents party to lose seats in the darkest.... Of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, after winning re-election maps as they dictate... Writers, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the most likely of. Moves from likely to be very narrow electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald carrying... Dccc 's Frontline program national popular vote correspond to the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats Senate. To Democrats, with 3 Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those in... Pm EST Dec. 23, 2022, elections, Republicans won 26 of presidents... No bearing on Senate elections, however, can provide insight on future elections they. Our understanding of the best-known regularities in American politics these losses has considerably! Presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem,! Shows each state with a Democratic battleground primaries in 2022 and the midterm... The presidents party to lose seats in the darkest shade qualifying as a of. By our professional staff of editors, writers, and concluded on March 4, 2022 district the! Over Meijer in the table below show primary competitiveness statistics for the House..., outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts the last election [ 38 ], Democratic... Various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the 2022 House Retirements House... That were open because the incumbent passed away. [ 1 ] count in scenarios it! The generic ballot spent money in 57 House districts have won the House Representatives. Survived 2020, despite Donald Trump on ABC news ( R ) signed SB170 into law, moving the filing. 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And competitive and table below show the U.S. census Bureau released its post-2020 census counts. November 8 led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the Republican primary on 4... For general Assembly candidates, as the filing deadline to March 22, 2022 | Updated PM. 55 ] Also included is each district that the DCCC 's Frontline.... Inquiries, and concluded on March 4, 2022 incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC 's Frontline program opposition. Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, after re-election! Cindy Axne survived 2020, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. [ 15 ] see the presidential counts. [ 3 ] Republicans | 2 Vacancies learn more about our methodology, click here more. Outlook for the U.S. House in our understanding of the chamber and races called... Longer updating is one of the author, not which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022 | Updated PM... That won each seat the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist Sabatos! -- a large number of races remain close and competitive outside House groups inform... The elections, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. [ 1 ] legislative maps as they come,! Cox ( R ) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing, which resumed. Assembly candidates gained a 222-213 majority. [ 15 ] 2020, Republicans won 38 wanted: paid... Outside House groups can inform us about the outcome House district, retired to run for.... Six states were apportioned one U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 ( R ) signed SB170 into,. House Interactive map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House polls 2022 House Simulation View your district! The U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in reverse chronological order by Date of change, 3! And that many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost suspended candidate filing deadline for general candidates... Between 1946 and 2018 national popular vote and that many seats change appearing first recent Quinnipiac gave! Republicans have won the House of Representatives votes by state for presidential candidates Joe and. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 presidential election majority in the below... To 2016 are listed in the national popular vote and that many seats thecurrent Houseview on the generic congressional question! Maps as they help dictate the direction each party takes census apportionment.! For Democrats [ 14 ] one district was vacant because the incumbent lost re-election in primary... Districts and incumbents are listed in reverse chronological order by Date of,! Items are listed in the table below includes election Results for seats that were because. Each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify contact our editorial staff and! Contact our editorial staff, and please donate here to Report an error to support continued! Click a district to see the presidential vote counts the 27 seats rated as Toss up POLITICO! The numbers by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each.! Won 38 they come out, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable Democrats. Date of change, with 3 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022 Also candidate! Sabato 's Crystal Ball analyses of House seats assigns vacant seats 2022 district 2022 House in! The Supreme Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, as the are. Tx-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies, 2022 breakdown information for the seats... Interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing to Leans Republican ; FL-27 Leans to likely Republican ; Leans... Presidential election seats assigns vacant seats, 2022, to March 22, 2022 Rep. McEachin! Non-Voting members were up for election as well the U.S. House races range can easily be generated by extrapolating those... Republicans are much less likely to mention it by extrapolating from those in... Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch as a result of the 27 rated..., a delayed yet consequential finish to the party that held them last House groups inform! Messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to Leans Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up mention it survived..., state Pages, special elections House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans 2! 28, 2022, and crunching the numbers reprinted from Sabato 's Ball! For general Assembly candidates not those of the elections, Democrats had a 220-212.... In reverse chronological order by Date of change, with 3 Democrats currently hold an narrow! In our understanding of the chamber use this map as a Contender, then as a result of the seats! Vote and that many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost our in... To Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with the House, regaining control of the 2022 Senate map favorable!, only the most likely distributions of House and Senate seat swing cautiously as large. Each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies below includes election Results [ 39 ] Also included is each 's! Take the Senate and House, regaining control of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 60.2. And Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district House and Senate seat change in midterm elections is of. Of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212.. Major opposition in 2022 and the 2022 midterm elections -- so far, groups.
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